Predicting the Year Ahead

We asked our Cutter experts to give predictions on upcoming trends for 2011 and beyond. Here's what they had to say ...

Demand Management Will Come of Age

Paul Allen

Demand management will come of age in 2011 as business demand for IT outstrips and races far beyond the available budget in ever stringent times. Organizations will look increasingly beyond managing the supply of IT resources, to getting a grip on the business demand for those resources. It will dawn that this is a lot more than purchasing the latest portfolio management tool. Expect the cultural balance to shift away from the obsession with IT supply, including SOA, cloud and agile, toward much more critical, more innovative and collaborative business analysis. Organizations will need to prepare and structure themselves in a way that allows balanced and objective decisions to be made on what really counts, not just the project that happens to be the loudest and most fashionable.

Scrum Decline to Become Obvious; An Upsurge in Lean; and a Rise in the Use of Agile Techniques within the Data Community

Scott Ambler

I have four predictions that I'd like to share with you:

1. The decline of Scrum will become obvious in 2011. The shine started to come off Scrum in 2009 when teams started to publicly report that they had run into trouble applying it effectively and this snowballed in 2010. The squabbling between the Scrum thought leaders over their various certification schemes exacerbated the problem in 2010 and there seems to be no end in sight. My recent 2010 Scrum Certification survey found that only 27% of Certified Scrum Masters (CSMs) were willing to admit that they were CSMs publicly and another 37% would do so seldomly, an indication of the agile community's growing embarrassment surrounding "Scrum certification." I suspect that Scrum will continue to decline in popularity in 2011 and that the vast majority of people claiming to be doing Scrum today will be unwilling to even admit this by 2013.
2. The upsurge in discussion about Lean will continue. There was a lot of discussion around Lean in 2010 and even some experimentation with it, and this trend will continue to gain steam in 2011. My guess is that attempted adoption of Lean will likely peak in three years at about 35% of IT development teams, but that the successful adoption rate of Lean will likely be about 15-20% around 2015. The move to Lean strategies such as Kanban will also contribute to the Scrum decline.
3. Collaborative lifecycle management (CLM) will continue to grow. This trend started a few years ago with application lifecycle management (ALM) and evolved into CLM in 2010. As the complexity of software/system delivery increases, organizations are coming to recognize the need for integrated and instrumented tooling which enables development professionals to collaborate effectively and allows management to govern in a lean and efficient manner. Spend a few minutes poking around www.jazz.net to see where agile development tools are going.
4. The upsurge of Agile techniques within the data community will continue. The data community is finally starting to put their toes in the Agile water, almost ten years behind the development community (we saw almost an identical adoption pattern with the object paradigm). 2011 will see a couple of new books published, an increase in Agile workshops for data professionals, and an increase in participation in only Agile database forums. This is a very good trend that was far too long in coming.

It's 2015: The CIO is Gone, IT is Gone, And All is Well in Convergence Land

Steve Andriole

It was always inevitable. If we ever solved the business technology alignment problem, as we were told so many times over the decades, we'd reach optimization nirvana. Is this the end of IT? Yes. It's 2015, and everyone's a chief information officer, or, more accurately, everyone's a chief business intelligence officer. While your infrastructure hums in the cloud, all eyes are on strategic technology and the businesses now directly responsible -- and accountable -- for business technology optimization.

The enterprise CIO is gone. The historical responsibilities of the office of the CIO have been distributed to the COO/CAO and the lines of business. Operational technology -- which supports all of your company's basic computing and communications activities -- serves all of the functional areas as well as all of the lines of business. Strategic technology is business-specific and therefore located in the lines of business.

The professionals who optimize operational and strategic technology are very different people. Rather than impose a one-size-fits-all approach on business technology staffing, enterprises in 2015 will seek the best people to do the things they're bred to do. Operational technologists will be knowledgeable about computing and communications infrastructures and architectures and -- especially -- the acquisition and management of operational services. The teams that acquire, deploy, and manage operational technology will possess deep skills and capabilities in cloud computing, vendor management, and performance monitoring. They will also contribute to the definition and implementation of the enterprise applications/communications/data architecture used to keep everyone on the same architectural page.

The professionals who optimize strategic technology will have wide and deep expertise in business process modeling (BPM), business analysis, requirements prioritization, competitor intelligence, enterprise architecture, and innovation, among all things business. They will be responsible for selecting, deploying, and supporting strategic applications through a provider network that's optimized through coordination with operational technology providers and governed by architecture.

The budget process here is straightforward. The operational technology budget is funded by a tax across the entire enterprise -- functional areas and lines of business. The tax should be proportionate to usage. Strategic technology is funded by the lines of business. There should be no pitched battles over operational budgeting. Strategic budgeting is localized. Lines of business can prioritize their spending internally and develop their own discretionary/nondiscretionary budget categories. Governance will be shared among the lines of business, operational technology managers, and technology providers. One enterprise organization will be established to oversee architectural standards and acquisition best practices.

Top Managers will Recognize Pivotal Role They Play in Agile

Jurgen Appelo

I see 2011 as the pivotal year in which top and middle management realize they play a crucial role in making Agile and Lean work.

While systems thinking gains some more traction in looking at organizations as systems, for many it will remain too vague to be useful.

We will see the first signs of simple and pragmatic Agile/Lean practices specifically developed for managers.

Widespread (Though Fragmented) Agile Adoption Continues

Sanjiv Augustine

In 2011, I see continued widespread adoption of agile methods, though with growing fragmentation and dissipation. Many different blends of Agile will evolve to serve the interest of different communities and protagonists:

Growing PMI-Agile Nexus. The philosophies of the leaders of and project managers in the PMI and Agile communities will continue to converge, with the PMI Agile Community of Practice growing at the nexus. This will happen despite chagrin and opposition from the extreme quarters of both communities. PMI managers will now feel they have their own version of agile.

"South Sea" Agile. With many companies having practiced some version of Scrum or other agile method for many years now, many agile practices such as collocation, big visible charts, daily stand-up meetings and collaborative workspaces will simply become the de facto way that software development projects are run. These agile practices will be employed without any knowledge of the principles behind them, and therefore, will be of limited effectiveness, though perhaps still better than the waterfall alternative. Nominal adopters will feel they have arrived with agile.

Growing Internationalization. With the rapid growth of agile adoption in India, China and Latin America; agile methods will expand internationally in a big way. U.S and European companies will feel that their international partners and/or subsidiaries are now drinking the same agile Kool-Aid.

Yes They Kanban. With the establishment of the Lean Systems and Software Consortium, a new landmark book by David Anderson, and many other industry bigwigs behind it, Kanban will develop significant momentum. Scrum doubters will now have their own version of Agile.

Lean-Scrum-XP for the Enterprise. Agile Enterprise enthusiasts like myself will continue to insist on the Lean-Scrum-XP prescription as the best way to scale Agile to the enterprise. Scrum, for getting teams up and running quickly and evolving high performance teams; XP, for deep technical discipline; and Lean, to scale beyond individual teams with effective program and portfolio governance. Senior managers will feel they have a robust Agile variant.

Scrum Uber Alles. Despite the momentum of Kanban, PMI Agile growth, some Lean in the enterprise, and diehard XP adoption, Scrum will continue to rule the roost. Certification will continue to be the wedge that introduces Scrum into more and more organizations. Also, despite continued lamentation in some quarters, certification will continue to be the market draw for individuals genuinely seeking to burnish their credentials or to simply jump onto the Agile bandwagon. Scrum enthusiasts can feel vindicated that they have the largest mindshare.

The Emerging Economy will Strengthen. Don't Hold Back!

Brent Barton

I predict that in the USA, the tension between Democrat- and Republican-controlled Houses of Congress will force compromise early and more will get done. The emerging economy will strengthen as global competition forces corporate investment. Companies that are overly conservative and hold on will find themselves at risk again.

Integrated Collaboration ... Finally?

Claude Baudoin

Over the last few years, we have seen an explosion of tools that connect us with colleagues and friends. Our interaction with other people has diverged into multiple parallel threads: e-mail, instant messages (in multiple systems), status updates on multiple social networks and Twitter, etc. The mental "context switching" we have to perform between all these channels seriously impacts our ability to effectively exchange information.

Based on a few developments that occurred since late 2009, we are approaching a tipping point: people want fewer tools to communicate, not more, and the market is starting to respond:

In 2011, expect these fledgling efforts to convince people (individually, as well as at the enterprise level) to adopt these "all-in-one" tools. You will not be forced to abandon any single mode of communication, but you will be able to manage all your interactions in one place. The owner of that "place" is trying to increase stickiness in order to sell more ad impressions, but the users will benefit from recovering some of the productivity lost through the past tool proliferation.

• The Google Wave beta generated a lot of curiosity but fizzled after six months, more because of its overreaching attempt to supplant other tools than anything else.

• The Cisco Quad product, announced in July, unifies collaboration and communication (including document sharing) through a single dynamic portal. Of course, the name of the game for Cisco is still to increase bandwidth consumption by making it seem indispensable to call someone on a video phone to schedule lunch; but the appeal of converging your interactions on a single platform is real.

• The Outlook Social Connector is still one of the best-kept secrets from Microsoft. It displays your LinkedIn or Facebook contacts' photos and updates at the bottom of the message window whenever you type or read an e-mail to/from them.

• On November 15, Facebook announced that it would give its users e-mail addresses. You will be able to use your Facebook home page (to which they added a chat feature some months ago) to combine your social networking activity with your e-mail traffic.

• Throughout 2010, we saw more and more applications, such as LinkedIn or Constant Contact, integrate or contribute to your Twitter feeds.

Trends for 2011

Ron Blitstein

Smart Phones

The transformation of smart phones into virtual wallets will stimulate new targeted attacks on mobile users.

Cyber Surveillance

Spending on cyber surveillance technologies by governments will increase dramatically with little corresponding increase in the safety or security of citizens.

3D Televisions

Consumers who purchase 3D televisions will not need to worry about where they left their glasses because there will be very little 3D content available.

Greater Agile Adoption for 2011

Gil Broza

What do I see for 2011? In 2011, we'll continue to see Agile adoption increase, and the price and scale of certification will drop even more. I still think (as I predicted for 2010), that as companies regroup post-recession, they will firm up co-located, on-shore development and that any growth in off-shore efforts will be in the form of increased business representation.

Scrum Will Suffer; Kanban Will Take Off

Jens Coldewey

The next two years will show a major change in the Agile world: The predominant position of Scrum will suffer from both the inside and the outside. On the inside, the struggles within the community will weaken the thrust effect of the certification program. Right now, we already have two competing certification programs, and, at least in Europe, single trainers are trying to establish their private programs, too. This will lead to several dialects and maybe even more competing certification programs. Though competition generally helps progress a profession, I consider this a sign of increasing weakness for the Scrum Alliance.

The ongoing merger between Scrum and XP -- now marketed as "Scrum development practices" -- strengthens the capabilities of Scrum teams but may also decrease the attractiveness of Scrum to non-technical decision makers.

From the outside Scrum is being attacked by the Kanban movement. Kanban opens the door to areas which have not been well addressed by the traditional methods, such as maintenance and enterprise-level processes. It extends the agile toolbox significantly, making Kanban a real alternative to Scrum.

So my advice is to observe the Scrum world closely over the next years. Me-too certification programs will vanish as quickly as they spring up, but two or three seriously competitive programs may stay on the scene for longer. If you don't want to go both ways, you may have to decide. For now, my best advice is go with the program whose coaches you trust.

Concerning Kanban, now is the time to learn more about its options and limitations and to consider first pilot projects. Kanban is in the early-adopter phase, but will moves on fast. Don't miss opportunities that may be advantageous to your business.

Mechanical Refactoring Across Boundaries

Ward Cunningham

In 2011 we will see successful mechanical refactoring across service and organizational boundaries. Regretfully it will take nine more years for this to become a common agile practice.

In a decade we will see terms of service expressed as automated tests. Service providers will occasionally revise these terms and their tests as they upgrade their services. They will NOT, however, be obligated to support an old interface indefinitely. Rather, they will be obligated to provide automated refactoring scripts that have been shown to mechanically upgrade a well-known public suite of sample applications in such a way that the new tests pass.

Careful readers will notice that I'm equating testing a service interface and testing a program that uses that interface. This unification will require a fresh approach to interface specification and test. My hope is that this comes as a consequence of the Agile Alliance Functional Testing Tools project.

Readers may also wonder how automated refactoring scripts might be expected to upgrade programs for which they have no prior visibility? Here I am assuming that these scripts are a byproduct of test-driven development with relentless refactoring using an IDE capable of recording refactoring, such as Eclipse. The service provider benefits from the public suite of sample applications, be they hundreds or thousands. They are proxies for their client applications, the owners of which are highly incented to be sure the samples are representative of their expectations.

This division of labor derives as a natural consequence of Agile's extreme programming practices combined with the intense pressure within our industry to specialize. We benefit from ongoing innovation without sacrificing the robustness in our service-based applications.

Cyber Security

Lynne Ellyn

I predict that the cyber security threats will take a critical, even terrifying sharp increase in sophistication with a new generation of highly targeted malware, modelled after the Stuxnet virus. At the same time, I predict that companies and individuals will not heed any warnings and will continue to risk personal and corporate finances, resources and reputation with a giddy rush to satisfy iPad envy, Android envy and addiction to non-stop cyber interaction.

The Year the C Level Gets the Business Value of Agile

​Israel Gat

There are two strands of interest to the CIO, the CTO, the CEO and the rest of the executive team: strategy and delivery. The fundamental premise of Agility to the C-level is quite straightforward. The paramount need to deliver faster/earlier is, for all practical purposes, dictated by today's markets becoming hyper-segmented. For example, my (or your) Twitter network today is an evolving market segment. My Twitter network in March 2011 could easily be a different segment than the segment it is today. The only way to penetrate such fluid market segments effectively is by following the classic Agile mantra "Release early and often."

In other words, Agility in 2011 is not "merely" about software methods and processes. Rather, it is all about value generation and recapture.

• "Merge" the two, so that:

  • Delivery can start before strategy is complete

  • Delivery informs strategy through tight feedback loops

• The net effect is faster/earlier delivery of products and service that are well suited to satisfy the needs of target markets.

More Agile Orgs will Attain Higher Levels of Organizational Maturity

Hillel Glazer

2010 saw the rapid growth of quantitatively-driven performance improvement among organizations serious about getting lean and seeing results. Much of this can be attributed to newer techniques in agile practices such as Kanban for software, and related awareness resulting from these practices.

Organizations getting serious about real, measurable improvement take being a learning organization to heart. They have started to explore blended approaches where they may bring together more than one “named” approach, firmly internalize the salient themes from them and synthesize a custom method that meets their specific business needs. Some of these organizations have also started to investigate and pursue use of CMMI as a framework for organizing and benchmarking their performance accomplishments.

In 2010, these efforts were nascent. In 2011, I see this growth accelerating. With more demonstrations of the success of mature practices (a la CMMI) in agile contexts, I see a rapid escalation of agile organizations attaining higher levels of organizational maturity which will translate easily into CMMI maturity. What this portends is an emergence of lean and agile organizations newly rating well against CMMI whereas until this time, most agile organizations rating well against CMMI had previously rated against CMMI and then pursued more lean and agile approaches. 2011 will be a performance break-away year for organizations taking agile “to the next level” of learning and maturity — which may require that many accepted moors about agile be abandoned.

Some Predictions for the Social Media/Social Networking Marketplace

Dave Higgins

Facebook will continue to be the 800-pound gorilla in the social networking space for the coming year. The challenge for Facebook will be to not shoot itself in the foot over privacy concerns. Trust is a big component in social networking (in real life as well as online), and Facebook is already on thin ice with many people over their ever-changing privacy policies. If those concerns spread or become more profound (or perhaps worse, attract the attention of government privacy regulators) Facebook risks losing growth momentum. That being said, location-based social networking sites like Foursquare and Gowalla will lose out to Facebook Places in the coming year as Places becomes the 800-pound gorilla in the "check in for rewards" category.

Twitter will release yet another revamped user interface in 2011. Users will complain about it for a few weeks before they get used to it. Twitter will be the news outlet of choice for breaking news from around the world when a huge natural disaster occurs or a celebrity dies.

Google will continue to try to figure out the social media marketplace by releasing Google Me in the first half of 2011. There will be much fanfare and excitement from the tech media pundits and the public will once again be puzzled while they try to figure out what it's good for.

And last but not least, let's see what 2011 holds for Apple. Like Google Wave before it, Apple's musical entry into social networking "Ping" will languish in obscurity until Apple finally gives up on it late next year. Does anyone really care what music Steve likes to listen to? Ping's dud will be offset by the biggest social change Apple will be responsible for. It will begin in June when Apple releases the iPhone 5 with NFC (Near Field Communication) capabilities. It will allow users to replace their credit cards (and thus their wallets) with their iPhone.

A Coming Deluge of Data

Peter High

In the past several years, companies have invested in a variety of technologies to help them gather data about their customers, their employees, their products, and their services. This has been an exciting opportunity for IT to collaborate with colleagues in Marketing, HR, and Sales, among other divisions of the business on efforts ranging from customer relationships management to business intelligence. The sources of data are ever increasing as the channels through which customers and employees interact with companies increase from blogs to Twitter to old channels like phones and in-person interactions. IT executives are in a race to stay ahead of the deluge.

2011 will be the year of reckoning for many CIOs, as the tidal wave of data makes its way to shore. Businesses have seen the value garnered through understanding the needs and desires of customers and employees to a greater extent, and this has only whet their appetites for more. IT executives will need to work with their colleagues outside of the IT to develop clear objective and priorities for this mountain of data. That same body should also work to understand whether there is some data that is currently captured that should not be in the future, or data that should be set aside so that the most critical data is not lost in the deluge. This is a problem that will only become more complex, so the cleverest CIOs will start this planning now.

Cloud Computing will Transform the Way Organizations Procure, Utilize and Administer Business Applications and Processing Power.

Jeff Kaplan

The rapid growth of Cloud Computing has been fueled by a combination of economic and technological factors, but sustained by the immediate business benefits which have clearly demonstrated that it is not just another over-hyped tech trend. I expect this market to grow even more rapidly as organizations of all sizes move from asking "What is Cloud Computing and why is it important?" to "Where and how can I capitalize on the Cloud?"

These organizations will leverage a combination of public, private and community Cloud solutions. They will also migrate to SaaS-based enterprise applications which include social networking capabilities similar to those found in Salesforce.com Chatter. A growing number of organizations will also capitalize on a widening array of Cloud-based Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) solutions and "datamarts", as well as Business Process-as-a-Service (BPaaS) alternatives. In sum, the rapidly evolving Cloud Computing landscape will transform the way organizations procure, utilize and administer business applications and processing power.

Wikileaks to Strongly Impact Global Diplomacy

Vince Kellen

Wikileaks has done more than anything else could have to make a strong emotional impact on world leaders across the globe. Wikileaks is the 9/11 of global diplomacy. The Internet is no longer benign. It has its malignancies. Over the next year, expect world leaders to begin to assert direct and indirect control over the Internet, including networks and data centers. Also look for more governments and militaries to use the Internet for what Internet edgelings have long been doing: communicating with the public. The big government spin on this will range from the transparent to propaganda to unilateral control. When information is power, powers that be will attempt to control information. 2010 was a turning point in this equation. Look for 2011 to chart a new, but not necessarily a better direction.

​A Move Toward Value Innovation

Masa K. Maeda

Under pressure from the continuing economic crisis, enterprises are struggling to maintain their level of competitiveness, or even remain in the market. What has been considered key to success will begin to shift, from the search for effective methodologies to the realization that innovation and value are the most important differentiators for success.

For many years, enterprises have considered effective management of scope, schedule, and budget as the key to success. This has been proven over and over to be incorrect. (Just ask the professionals you know. How many projects have they been involved with where scope, schedule, and budget were really effectively managed?) Furthermore, there are projects that accomplish this goal and still do not succeed. (Think "no sales.") The success-failure reports from some well-known firms are misleading because they are based entirely on those evaluation parameters and continue to guide enterprises in the wrong direction.

One of the contributions of Lean and Agile has been the realization that emphasis on quality is much more important than the three parameters of scope, schedule and budget. More recently, attention has been brought to value to customer as the main driver to increasing the chance of success. These contributions are helping enterprises better evaluate what is considered success and what is considered failure. More successful products will be created as enterprises around the planet continue to adopt Lean and Agile. This success will not only help those companies flourish, but will also contribute to better the world economy. Observe, for example, the tremendous level of enthusiasm over Kanban and Scrum adoption in South America where the economy of countries like Brazil, Peru, and Chile is growing surprisingly fast. Entrepreneurs are seeing the benefits of Lean and Agile, and are adopting their methodologies at a rate that may match North America and Europe soon.

Innovation has been brought in as the newest player. Value Innovation puts innovation, quality, and value together to better both the customer-facing and the business-facing sides of the enterprise, with particular emphasis on the human factors of competitive advantage and enterprise success.

2011 will be a year of maturity in the way we understand success and the beginning of a change in direction to follow Value Innovation.

Net Geners' to Greatly Influence Enterprise Management and Growth

Robert Mason

I could be wrong, but here are my predictions for the upcoming year. I believe that these observations will become more widely apparent.

Prediction 1: Established firms will continue to feel the pressure for changing how they lead and manage. The influx of 'net geners' into the workplace will increasingly challenge traditional leadership and management styles. Established companies with previously successful top-town and hierarchical structures will re-think their management style in order to attract and retain innovative, younger workers.

Prediction 2: In 2011, it will become more evident that the fastest growing companies over the next several years will be those that reflect the values of net geners [e.g., innovation, particularly in systems for social justice and effecting change in society]. These companies will grow because both the products and services they develop and produce and the work environment they create reflect these values.

In 2011, there will be a serious interest in redesigning the Internet and Internet security and large enterprises everywhere will have to starting thinking about how this is likely to affect them

Ken Orr

It has been obvious for a long time now that Internet security was going to be a major worldwide problem. As we all know, the original Internet had been designed for the kinder, gentler world of the late 1960s - all we had to worry about was nuclear destruction. The original Internet was conceived as a research project, not the backbone of the most critical international computer/communication infrastructure for literally billions of people.

When (1) the Internet was coupled with (2) a generation of limited operating systems created for enormously limited personal computers, (3) communication networks were pushed beyond their limits and (4) an increasingly sophisticated worldwide community of dedicated hackers exploded, what resulted was (5) a security environment resembling a giant Rube Goldberg machine. As threats became more serious, computer/network security experts predicted a whole range of dire consequences - and they were spot on. What wasn't clear was when the problem would become so serious that people in positions of power would begin to take the problem seriously. As it turned out, that year was 2010.

Over the last 9 months, we have been able to peek under the cloak of Internet Secrecy only to find that there are massive holes everywhere. In 2010, there were numerous events that caused the world to pay attention:

The cumulative effect of these events has finally evoked serious responses from a number of powerful organizations around the world, including the US Government, the US DoD, Google, and the Indian Government/IT industry. Recently, each of these organizations has expressed its intention to create more secure Internet designs and more secure operating environments.

My prediction is that in the next year or two we will see industry and government groups around the world begin to create much more sophisticated security environments. I predict that the confidential work that has been going on in secret for some time will become more public, and more and more thought leaders will admit that the current approach cannot be fixed.

1. the attack by hackers on strategic sites in the US,
2. the "flash crash" of the electronic stock market,
3. the Stuxnet worm attack on Iranian nuclear facilities,
4. the rerouting of a significant percentage of all Internet traffic to Chinese Internet sites, and
5. the WikiLeaks retaliation

Google's Cloud-based Operating System will begin to push individuals and organizations away from the current PC-based work environment

Ken Orr

There is a tendency to over-emphasize the short-run and minimize the long-run impacts of important technologies. That is clearly true of net-centric computing. Net-based computers have been seriously proposed for over a decade, but have never really materialized. Now, Google's Chrome-based netbook entry promises to be a game changer. Google developers have already proven that they can develop serious operating systems with their Chrome browser and Android operating system. Now they are moving toward cloud-based computing for billions of people around the world.

"Google's Chrome OS vision is perhaps best understood by examining the differences between Chrome OS and the operating systems commonly used today, says Sundar Pichai, the vice president of product management for Chrome OS (and the related Chrome Web browser). Those differences come from a single design decision about the relationship between a person and his computer, Pichai says.

"Operating systems today are centered on the idea that applications can be trusted to modify the system, and that users can be trusted to install applications that are trustworthy," he says, "it turns out those are bad assumptions.'

"In contrast, Chrome OS assumes that applications and users can't be trusted. And it has just one application: the browser. "There's a cascade of things that happen when you make this core assumption," says Linus Upson, a Google VP of engineering working on the project, from making it easier to protect against malware, to reducing the need for users to act as administrator for their own system." (Excerpted from MIT Technology Review)

Clearly, there a great many organizations that have a major stake in the current PC-based operating environment, especially Microsoft. However, the increasing power of network-based computing environments coupled with 4G/5G wireless networks and the long-term problems with Internet and current computer security systems has created an environment where radical new approaches are increasingly seen as necessary.

In the end, instead of "cloud/network computing" being a major security problem, cloud-based workstations may, in fact, be a serious improvement over the current Windows and Linux operating systems that run on most desktops and laptops. With the Chrome-based netbooks, Google proposes to create an operating environment in which there is complete isolation between the operating system and user functionality. The move to network computing is likely to catch enterprises by surprise, and be difficult to avoid.

• Trend No.3 - New technology will enable the personal use of Supercomputers on the Cloud

  Recently, the Cloud has been talked about by many as the future of IT operations. While most of this talk has been about using the Cloud to replace traditional enterprise computing, one area that has not been discussed much is the use of the Cloud to deliver supercomputing capabilities to the desktop.

  Recently, however, Gamestring, a company devoted to supporting sophisticated multiplayer gaming on smartphones has demonstrated a tool called Adrenaline, which makes it possible for lightweight smartphones to become serious gaming platforms by streaming video from supercomputers to iPhones and Androids. This same technology, which couples "thin clients" with high speed wireless, promises to give everyone everywhere access to the most sophisticated computing engines from their desk, home, or airport lounge.

  In the ancient era of timesharing (the 60s and 70s), the value proposition was "buy the smallest part of the largest (most powerful) computer available"; this is clearly a trend again, one that can put supercomputer power on very low power computers with high bandwidth communication.

Apple will introduce a netbook (and call it something else)

Ken Orr

The Apple iPad, as everyone knows, has been a great success. In the few months since its introduction it has sold millions and changed how millions of people interact with wireless computers. Again, as has been so often the case in the recent past, Apple has created a whole new market segment. However, while the iPad is pretty cool as an e-book reader, it doesn't have a keyboard. Whenever I see someone with one on the road, they prop it up against something or use a special carrying case to awkwardly type on it. If there's one thing that I have proven to myself, it's that virtual keyboards don't work all that well for real work.

Now, Apple already has the MacBook Air, a superthin, superlight device that has a keyboard, a cool screen, and solid state memory. Sooner or later, Apple (aka Steve Jobs), is going to create a notebook/netbook that is something like the Air with a rotating touch sensitive screen. (Perhaps like the Dell Duo or the Lenovo ideapad pictured below, which allow their devices to be used as both a netbook and a pad computer.) I predict that these devices will be the workhorses of the "teens".

This will result in a rush to create the thinnest, most lightweight device possible. My guess is that Apple will come up with a category-buster here again, but no one should overlook the Google Chrome Internet OS-based netbooks/tablets.

Government IT Organizations Lead with 3 "Value Accretion" Disciplines

Mark Peterson

Leadership IT Organizations (ITOs) are focusing on implementation and integration of three key Value Accretion disciplines over the next 12 months. The continuing uncertainty of the economic climate over the next 12 to 18 months is moving Governors, County Executives and City Mayors and Managers to increasingly look for both short-term and long-term cost reductions in operations.

Rather than focusing on downsizing and hoping to fill vacant positions next year, I believe savvy IT Leaders will move their IT organizations toward a "Business within the Business" applying three critical disciplines on an enterprise basis. These three Value Accretion disciplines include a clear focus on:

Government Program/Portfolio Management Office (PPMOs)

Mark Peterson

Specifically within the Government sector, ITOs that deploy a Program/Portfolio Management Office and Project Management disciplines for governance of large projects will win big. They will have the ability to show immediate and long term cost savings from optimized and leveraged management of modernization projects. Performance-based Projects will capture clearly defined value and enable sustainable business practices.

OPM3 and Project Management

Mark Peterson

In order to move swiftly into modernization projects, ITOs must know how and where to develop maturity. The Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3) sponsored by the Project Management Institute (PMI) provides a unique method of assessment. Coupled with fact-based recommendations, this assessment will enable CIOs to more successfully understand Project Management weaknesses and corrective actions more quickly and implement large projects with greater confidence while instituting key performance measures.

IT Operational Performance Measures

Mark Peterson

A credible mass of Government IT organizations will utilize operational and personal performance measures tied directly to value accretion of investments made in technology and support functions. The primary areas of performance measures will be based on existing "best practices" of Control Objectives for IT (CoBIT) for operational improvements, Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) for service delivery improvements and COSO for managing risks.

Government IT Organizations that implement these three critical areas of value accretion will gain credibility and, more importantly, be entrusted with scarce funding for implementing needed improvements. IT Organizations working with these three disciplines to optimize their operations and provide desired services to their customers will be seen as business partners and leaders in 2011.

1. Developing a Program/Portfolio Management Office

2. Increasing Project Management Maturity, and

3. Improving IT Operational Performance

Mobile Apps will Raise the Bar for Business Application Development

Mark Peterson

The iPhone 4.0 and the Android phone have significantly raised the bar for government and commercial business application developers. The application developers for these two phones have hit the target dead on. A new standard of application design is now on the market for all to see: usable code that directly provides time savings and innovation while making work significantly more effective and efficient.

They've already changed the way I shop is a couple of ways, such as:

With this kind of impact, in 2011 application developers will be challenged by users to provide more effective and efficient programs that directly aid the business in new ways. There will be more pressure on "business application" developers to implement new models and innovations for identifying user requirements.

1. Scan, compare and shop. I can scan a store item on the shelf, while my phone finds the same item in stores within miles of me along with pricing comparisons.

2. Got gas? I can find the price of gas anywhere I am in seconds.

3. Look and find it, please. Using Google Goggles, I can take a picture of an object and the search engine will automatically find it on the Internet for me.

A Few Predictions for 2011

Carl Pritchard

• Even Less Distinction Between Work and Personal Time

• The biggest shifts in the year ahead will be the additional integration of productivity software with social networking software, further blurring the line between work and non-work time. Organizations will try to leverage social networks as a means to extract more connectivity from staff, creating scenarios where connected staff members will be seen as contributors, even if their only contribution is mere presence.

• I also believe some of the major productivity software packages will find ways to weave their informational web into these social networks, allowing for higher levels of information sharing among groups and subgroups. More and more organizations will create unique staff groups through LinkedIn and Facebook to generate "town hall" style communication, replacing classic organizational newsletters and staff updates.

• Beyond that, 2011 bodes well for organizations willing to explore new modes and modalities in presenting goods and services. Always been a face-to-face shop? There will be more profits expanding into the virtual world. Always been an e-tail environment? There will be more profits with the bricks-and-clicks model (a blend of physical facilities and virtual services). Always served the client on a strict B2B model? Direct connections to the end user will drive both higher profitability and new business directions. Oh yes, and we'll have flying cars.

Putting Business Analysts on the Team

James Robertson

I predict that in the coming year, agile teams will realise that they need to have skilled business analysts as part of the team. The product owner is in no position to represent the business at large, nor is anyone whose main concern is hitting the sprint targets. Let's get some business thinking and system thinking into the mix, and stop concentrating on the software alone.

I also predict, it's more of a hope really, that people will stop using the meaningless term "delivering customer value."

2011: Further Innovation and Reliability in Mobile Technology

Alexandre Rodrigues

The year of 2010 was in many ways a negative surprise against the expectations. The aggravation of the economic crisis in some of the more developed economies of the world brought disappointment to companies and individuals who expected recovery, and with it, opportunities for exploring emerging technology. Despite the delayed recovery scenario, the Year 2010 nevertheless confirmed some anticipated trends in technology, specifically in Internet-based mobility, using laptops and cell phone-based small devices.

In 2010, it was demonstrated that barriers to work collaboration across the globe are practically confined down to time-fuses - and even this constraint can in some cases be explored as an opportunity. With faster high-speed Internet available worldwide, and with cell phone devices behaving like laptops for what matters most (network connection, email, IM, VOIP, MS Office Documents, Acrobat, and even Facebook) along with providing additional software to support mobility (GPS, weather forecasts, currency exchange, flight schedules, hotel booking, etc.), the potential for "virtual presence" has increased tremendously. Though some of this technology is new, it is rapidly and reliably evolving (especially with regard to software integration in the devices), and it has not yet reached full maturity. The year of 2011 will most likely be characterized by further innovation and reliability of mobile technology allowing organizations to explore mobility on a much larger scale. Business models and processes are likely to be redesigned to embrace this potential.

The 'Wild West' of Cyberspace will get worse before it gets better.

Mike Rosen

Security and the law have not caught up with technology and the outlaws. But most people seem to be ignoring the risks in favor of the opportunities and I don't see that changing in 2011. A high profile incident is bound to happen, probably sooner rather than later.

The headlines this year have been full of security issues facing the internet. First, there was the Zeus Trojan Horse which has stolen millions of dollars from small businesses and individuals. Zeus steals your credentials from your computer, and then uses them to make numerous small transfers from your bank account (under the $10,000 limit for reporting) until it has been emptied out. Since your computer was at fault, banks don't feel liable for the theft. Zeus is a toolkit that has sold tens of thousands of copies on the Internet black market. Not wanting to be left out, SpyEye is a competing toolkit that not only steals your credentials, but kills Zeus in the process if it detects it. These 'crimeware' kits are purportedly developed and sold by organized crime. Oh, and by the way, they are virtually undetectable by most antivirus software.

But it's not just the crooks that are out there. The Stuxnet virus hit the news this summer after being discovered as having attacked Iran's Bashehr and Natanz nuclear facilities. Although the Pentagon can neither confirm nor deny knowledge of the virus, the incredible sophistication of the virus points to a few, highly skilled intelligence communities. It was reported just this week that Stuxnet is still wrecking havoc and Iran still hasn't gotten it under control.

Then of course there is WikiLeaks. First with documents related to the war in Afghanistan, then a few months later, hundreds of thousands of diplomatic communications. The government agencies in charge say it will take years to properly secure their networks. But, when certain organizations went to shut down WikiLeaks operations (such as Amazon, PayPal, Mastercard, etc.) all hell broke loose. Members of the group Operation Payback initiated Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks on those sites. In addition, up to 3000 people downloaded programs from different websites that allowed them to contribute to the DDoS attacks against numerous free speech foes including Joe Lieberman and Sarah Palin (ironically for speaking their minds).

Mobile Devices will become the Primary Web-access Devices

Robert Scott

Over the next two years, tablets and smart mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide. Ease of use, the rapidly expanding portfolio of applications, and the impact of Moore's Law on cost will drive the expansion of mobile platforms both inside and outside of the enterprise. Facing an increasing demand by users for freedom of choice, IT organizations will retrench their architecture to allow mobile devices as the primary access device into the cloud. One immediate implication: the need to redesign Web presence. Although a growing number of websites and Web-based applications offer support for small-form-factor mobile devices, many still do not. Websites not optimized for the smaller-screen formats will become a market barrier for their owners -- much content and many sites will need to be reformatted/rebuilt.

Development Environment for Specific Architectural Styles

Oliver Sims

This year, rather than predicting what the future will bring, I'm making a wish. Here's what I'd dearly love to see happen:

Today's major development environments address a wide variety of architectural styles. However, because they don't address any specific style, developers face a considerable amount of software architecture and technology work in order to design and build to the required architectural style. 2011, however, will see the first development environment equipped to address one or more specific architectural styles. Thus, much of the software technology work required to address the "ilities" (scalability, flexibility, usability, configurability, and so forth) will be pre-packaged, making it hugely more productive for application developers. Such a tool will not be a prison, as many special-purpose tools of the past were. Rather it will have strong guidelines that will enable application designers and developers to concentrate on only the business-specific aspects of logic, presentation, services, persistent data, etc., without worrying about architecture or software technology design concerns. At the same time, it will enable software technologists to easily "break out" to handle any unusual technology specifics within the defined architectural style. Such a development environment will bring about a significant improvement in application development productivity as well as providing vendor support for most of the "ilities".

This needs no magic -- just someone to fund it. But sadly, I think we have as much chance of seeing this in the next five years as we have seeing hens with teeth.

(I wrote extensively about applying architectural styles in the Cutter Executive Report "Packaging Architecture for Reuse.")

In My Crystal Ball I See ...

Mike Sisco

Why limit myself to predicting what 2011 will bring? Here are some prognostications for the years and decades to come. Realistic? Far-fetched?

1. Over the next three years, as air travel becomes a greater security risk and more expensive, many companies will transition more of their business using social media, e-learning capability, and online communication tools like GoToMeeting.

2. Tools like WordPress have just touched the tip of the iceberg. We will see more and more companies start using tools like this for Web sites and as a means to stay in touch with employees, customers, and prospects.

3. In the distant future, we will no longer need cables to connect devices; not even for providing electricity for our devices. Passing electricity across a room to light a light bulb completely wirelessly is already being tested in a lab setting. The question I have is, "What happens if you are between the electrical source and the light bulb?" :)

4. I don't see that managing technology resources will change all that much. The management issues we had 20 years ago are still the primary management issues of today, even though the technology has changed dramatically.

5. Some scientists speculate that technology will change 1,000 times as much in this century as it did in the last century -- and in the last century we went from horse and buggy to automobiles and jet aircraft. The last century changed as much as all the centuries before it combined, with regard to technology advances. For the 21st Century to change 1,000 times more than the last one means we will see some unbelievable (at least what we can envision today) things happen.

6. I can see that within 20 years, most households have their own, affordable, electric energy source (wind, sun, or something we don't even see today) and most automobiles will be powered completely by battery or some alternative fuel source other than those which we have today. When - and if - this happens there will be a paradigm shift of major proportions: economic, political, and environmental.

7. Within five years, laptops will have their own projector device built in -- no need to carry a projector with you anymore! We may even have the capability to project 3D holograms in the middle of a conference table instead of up, onto a projector screen. What if a handheld device (like your phone) had full PC capability and could project a full size hologram keyboard that you could actually type on? Now that would make travel much easier.

Next Year: A Surge in Demand for Mobile Apps — and Developers

Catherine Szpindor

Demand for mobile applications will surge, helping to spur hiring in the IT sector. Mobile application developers will be needed to meet the demand for more applications. Along with this will come the realization that this type of development requires the same rigor and support that's given to any other type of development effort, but with a greater need for speed-to-market. New software development and support utilities will be developed and agile development techniques will grow in practice in a competitive and mobile-driven economy. How to adequately secure data and mobile devices will continue to be a major concern.

It's the Tipping Point for Semantic Web Linked Open Data!

Mitchell Ummel

The Linked Open Data (LOD) cloud has doubled in size approximately every year since 2007 and is now collection of more than 200 datasets that offer more than 25 billion interlinked facts, available across widely diverse domains such as government, scientific, medical, social media, geographic, and other data. All of this publicly accessible data now comprises an estimated 395 million links between around 25 billion RDF statements. Starting in 2011, increasingly interesting and useful Semantically Aware Applications (SAAs), in the form of mashups against this semantically-defined data, will begin to proliferate massively. Look for governments (exemplified by www.data.gov in the United States and www.data.gov.uk in England) -- in the continued spirit of transparency and accountability -- to be leading the charge in this area.

• Are We Moving Towards a More Architecture-less IT?

  Starting in 2011, look to a gradual shift away from constraining or contrived architectures, based on outdated analogies with building architecture or the traditional business, application, data/information, technology architecture EA "stack." Tomorrow's IT architectures may be more like the analogy where a building is architected in Zero-G (gravity). In such an environment, would we really pour the foundation first, and then establish the support beams and framing to be pre-requisite, dependant, and therefore locked in, for the life of the system? IT architectures -- especially application and information architectures based upon emerging Semantic Web-based technologies -- are far less constrained, allowing for refactoring, growth, and evolution in a real-time manner. There is no lock-in to any but the most basic and simple of architectural constructs. They are based on what will become eventually widely recognized as Semantic Enterprise Architecture (SEA).

• Is There A Personal Cloud on Your Horizon?

  Starting in 2011, a new type of Cloud is rising in the distance. This cloud isn't about enterprise class computing or the data center: it's about information; information about you. Today, every individual has information about him/herself -- relationships, digital devices under our control, etc. -- spewed across the Internet. Often this information is automatically generated; it's a form of digital exhaust trailing us as a by-product of how we interact with the Internet. Today, we have little or no control about how this information is used. We are each subject to lopsided and confusing "terms and conditions" for every consumer service. The concept of privacy is continually re-interpreted by Internet-based service providers.

  The concept of a Personal Cloud is bigger than just computing; it may also include your very own Personal Cloud Computer as part of the service. A Personal Cloud ... huh? It's simply a tightly controlled, virtualized, digital instance of everything about you as an individual, and encompasses the span of information within your responsibility. Your Personal Cloud is accessible, and updatable, by you (and only you or your designee) anytime, anywhere, and anyhow (through any device).

  Consider the Personal Cloud as digital lockbox that you have full control over. What might I manage in my Personal Cloud? My name (and unique identity), social security number, digital wallets, security tokens, physical attributes, hereditary information, personal health information (PHI), electronic health record (EHR), family relationships, relationships with other individuals, social media preferences, advertising preferences for products and services, personal consumer sentiments, personal social causes, information about digital devices under my control ... the list goes on and on. Most important, though, are the flexible and configurable opt in and opt out settings which allow me to direct how all this information is secured, used and shared.

  Many of the enabling technologies for Personal Cloud are here today, or are beginning to emerge on the Semantic Web. Constructs such as PKI, OpenID, FOAF, POWDER, etc. may become integral to the solution. The Personal Cloud puts control of privacy, back in the hands of individuals, where it belongs.

• Transformational Government 3.0

  During the past decade, we found Government 2.0 to be evolutionary, serving to increase collaboration and communication through technology-enablement across the domains of Government-to-Citizen (G2C), Government-to-Business (G2B), and Government-to-Government (G2G). Beginning in 2011, we will see a movement towards Transformational Government 3.0, involving a necessary shake-up of core, longstanding government traditions, through a renewed focus on reinventing how a technology-enabled fabric of governmental processes and people (and the organizations for which they serve) can more effectively and efficiently serve its constituents in the future.

Business Analysis as a Profession

Bhuvan Unhelkar

I foresee a major push, globally, for Business Analysis to be recognised as a profession. This is an absolutely vital trend that will continue to build due to shifts in the demographics of software development. As software development and maintenance becomes concentrated in some geographical areas and, as the Cloud and SaaS enable such software to be operated and maintained outside the business organization, there will be tremendous importance to formalizing the profession of Business Analysis. Currently, the term Business Analysis can imply anything from requirements modeling to systems analysis to business architecture. This vagueness will be replaced by a much clearer understanding of the business analyst role and related skill sets in business and technology domains. Standards, such as Skills Framework for Information Age (SFIA), International Institute of Business Analysis (IIBA), Australian Institute of Business Analysis (AIBA) are increasingly having a positive impact on the understanding of this vital role of a BA.

• Carbon to become a Significant Currency

  Carbon trading will be based on the ability to calculate carbon accurately. This, in turn, will be based on development and implementation of standards (e.g. ISO 14001). The maturity of Carbon Emissions Management Software (CEMS) will play a major role in the next 3 to 4 years in enabling carbon trading. Carbon will become a significant "currency" in its own right!

• Two Trends Around Collaborative Business

  Last year, I anticipated collaborative businesses to flourish rapidly. Airlines collaborating with hotels, which in turn would collaborate with car rentals, and they in turn with the insurance companies. The customer benefits through the enhanced experience of seamless service. There are two major movements/trends in this area:

  1. Customer Collaboration. Customer collaboration is based on corporate customers who collaborate with one another in the process of buying/procuring products/services. Increasingly, through Web Services, customers are collaborating with each other as much as with vendors by forming electronic consortiums to procure wholesale goods, services, utilities, and so on. This will continue to lead to many-to-many electronic transactions resulting in a true oligopoly.

  2. Business Agility. Business agility is an important new trend that rides on the back of cloud computing. The Cloud enables a business to shift all its non-core IT functions outside its organizational boundary. In the coming two to three years, we will see no airline, hotel or insurance company with an IT department per se. The Internet-based, high-speed, increasingly-reliable wired/wireless broadband communications networks have enabled businesses, particularly large and global businesses, to become lean and agile.