Between now and 2030, we will undoubtedly see a transformation in AI adoption and application — but it is not clear which way this transformation will go. The huge advances made in the field in recent years are well-known, but they are not necessarily well-understood.
Anxiety is building, not just over AI’s legal, ethical, environmental, and social implications, but over whether it will yield the productivity gains so eagerly anticipated. Despite the rise to public prominence of generative AI (GenAI), especially since the 2021 release of ChatGPT, no significant rise in worker productivity has been observed. In fact, a recent Upwork study found that 77% of employees believe AI has made them less productive.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is well established: initial excitement at a new technology’s potential leads to overinvestment, followed by a corrective crash that triggers consolidation and, in due course, more sustainable growth. AI may be entering the middle phase of this cycle. However, there are many examples of technologies that defied the cycle, either by sinking without a trace or continuing an unabated rise to success. The future of AI could go many ways.
Our struggles to convert AI into real-world gains suggest that the decisive challenge for the immediate future of AI is its successful integration into the tasks that skilled and professional people perform. According to the Upwork study, many executives feel their workers lack the skills to take advantage of the technology. Meanwhile, employees argue that time taken up checking unreliable AI output is a productivity killer.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economist David Autor graphically highlighted the vastly different value technologies can have in trained and untrained hands: “A pneumatic nail gun is an indispensable time-saver for a roofer and a looming impalement hazard for a home hobbyist.” AI cannot currently be expected to bridge all gaps in skill, experience, or data management within an organization.
Multiple Amplify contributors have called for an inclusive, humanistic approach to AI adoption. We believe that leaders looking to successfully integrate AI would benefit from undertaking a deep, widespread analysis of precisely what contribution AI can make to the most pivotal roles and skills in their organization. This is not only important for maximizing the positive value of AI; we argue that, in the face of wholesale automation of roles, a conscious effort is needed to maintain the skills and professional development ecosystem necessary to produce humans capable of adopting and exploiting AI in the future.
[For more from the authors on this topic, see: “Someone Using AI Will Replace You, But Who Will Replace Them?”]
